European Football Best Bets – May 21 & 22

Wolfsburg are desperately trying to secure their place in the Bundesliga for next season as they head into their playoff clash with Paderborn. 

The first-leg of their match is incredibly important ahead of their trip to face their opponents next week. In the Bundesliga, Wolfsburg managed to secure just 29 points from their 34 matches as their season failed to take off. Seven wins, eight draws and 19 defeats came alongside 45 goals scored and 69 conceded, with Wolfsburg finding avoiding defeat very difficult. Ahead of their meeting, Wolfsburg can lean on a three-game unbeaten run against their opponents with this featuring two wins. With the second-leg to follow next week, I am backing the home side to secure what may prove a pivotal win. 

Paderborn are eyeing up Wolfsburg’s Bundesliga spot for the 2026/27 season after finishing the 2. Bundesliga in third. Denied an automatic spot in next season’s competition via a slightly inferior goal difference to SV Elversberg, Paderborn will feel they have the tools to beat Wolfsburg over two legs. Worrying will be their poor form against their opponents, with the side winning one of their previous seven matches against Wolfsburg. With both sides scoring in the last six meetings between the sides, I back both goalkeepers to concede in the first-leg. 

Ajax are looking to break a run of form that has seen them struggle in the league in recent weeks. Their last outing ended in a hugely disappointing 0-0 draw with Heerenveen, with Ajax’s winless run stretched to three matches. Their haul of two points from their last three means they ended the regular season in the Eredivisie in fifth with 56 points after a disappointing season. 

Groningen come into their match with Ajax on the back of a two-game winning run. A pair of 2-1 wins over Nijmegen and Heracles put an end to a run of three without a win that featured two defeats and a draw. However, their wins across their last two enabled the side to finish in ninth on the ladder, setting up their European playoff semi-final with Ajax. While the travelling side beat Ajax 3-1 in their last meeting, this came at home. On the road, Groningen have struggled, with their last three ending in 6-1, 3-1 and 2-0 defeats. With this poor run in mind, I am backing Ajax to beat their opponents by two goals, which has been the margin of victory across the last two times Ajax have hosted their opponents. 

Lens arrive for the conclusion of the Coupe de France on the back of a stunning season that saw them push PSG all the way in the league. While they did finish the season six short of PSG at the summit, Lens continually displayed that they would not fall off in a display of real grit. Now, Lens arrive looking to notch a sixth win in the Coupe de France that will secure them the trophy. 

Nice may have enjoyed their time in the Coupe de France, but it has not seen them excel in the league, with the side limping to the end of the season. Their outing against Lens in the final will be quickly followed by a relegation playoff double-header against St-Etienne. Over the course of a week, Nice could miss out on a major domestic trophy and suffer relegation. Worrying will be their form, with the side winning one of their last nine in all competitions, losing three times and drawing five games. 

This season, Lens have been able to avoid defeat against Nice, winning 2-0 at home before securing a 1-1 draw at the start of May. With Lens in good form having only lost one of their last eight, I am backing them to secure the trophy as they defeat their opponents.