EPL Matchweek 3 Odds Report

• Lessons from Matchweek 1 & 2
• Favorites Holding Strong
• Best Value Spots
• Matchweek 3 Odds Overview
• The Headline Clash

Lessons from Matchweek 1 & 2

Surprise Upsets

In Matchweek 1, Sunderland’s win at odds of 3.65 and Nottingham Forest’s win at 2.20 provided early shocks.

Matchweek 2 had even bigger drama, with Tottenham beating Man City at 6.10 away and Chelsea thrashing West Ham at 1.77 for strong backers.

Favorites Holding Strong

Arsenal (1.38 vs Leeds in MW2) and Liverpool (1.35 vs Bournemouth in MW1) both justified their odds, showing the markets weren’t always wrong.

Manchester City, however, were stunned at home in MW2 despite short odds, proving that even “bankers” carry risk.

Best Value Spots

The real value so far has been in away wins. Tottenham (6.10 at City) and Chelsea (1.77 at West Ham) showed how underdogs can overturn expectations.

Matchweek 3 Odds Overview

Clear Favorites
Manchester United (1.38) vs Burnley (8.20)
After City’s stumble, bettors will be cautious about backing “guaranteed” favorites, but United should have enough at home.

Chelsea (1.54) vs Fulham (5.80)
Chelsea already delivered value in MW2, and the market is again backing them heavily.

Balanced Contests
Wolves (2.60) vs Everton (2.90)
Nearly a pick’em. In MW2, Everton shocked Brighton away at 3.15 — which suggests their 2.90 here could be mispriced.

Leeds (3.50) vs Newcastle (2.12)
Leeds have not yet been rewarded by the odds despite competitive performances. Home underdog status gives them appeal.

Value Underdogs
West Ham (5.20) vs Nottingham Forest (1.70)
Forest were backed at short odds in MW2 and delivered. But the Hammers’ 5.20 seems steep, especially given their attacking firepower.

Brighton (4.00) vs Man City (1.85)
After City’s stumble in MW2, the market may be underrating Brighton at home.

The Headline Clash

Liverpool (2.18) vs Arsenal (3.35)
Both teams have looked sharp in the opening rounds. The pricing shows how evenly matched they are.
The draw at 3.55 could be a safer route, given how neither side has shown weakness so far.