Football

Serie A Best Bets - Matchday 1

By Ben Darvill

3 hours ago

Ben Darvill 3 hours ago

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Best bets for the first round of the new Serie A season
Featured games include Inter Milan vs Monza and Genoa vs Napoli
Preview, stats & head to head

Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan (Getty Images)

Inter Milan vs Monza
Genoa vs Napoli

Inter Milan vs Monza

Inter Milan will begin the defence of their Serie A title this weekend as they host Monza. Last season, Inter eventually stormed to the title by 11 points, with Napoli trailing in their wake. 27 wins in 38 outings came alongside six draws and five defeats, while they scored a league-high 89 goals and conceded 35 times.

Their opener comes against an opponent they have struggled to keep out of late. Their last four meetings have resulted in three wins for Inter along with a draw. Each of these matches have seen Inter concede, with their defence unable to keep their opponents out. Playing at home in their opener means they will be very confident, but I believe they will have to outscore their opponents, with goals the order of the day.

Monza began the new season with a solid 3-0 win over Avellino in the cup mere days ago. This came on the back of a 4-2 win over AC Milan's under-23's side and a 3-3 draw against Padova. In truth, they have impressed in pre-season, with a 4-3 win over Pro Vercelli and a 2-0 win over Galatasaray preceding their only defeat in this run, with this coming against Aris (3-1). The major worry for Monza heading into this one is their poor run across their last five against Inter. In this time, they have lost four games and drawn once. While I back goals in this one, I do not see Monza ending their poor run against their opponents.

Genoa vs Napoli

Genoa are looking to better a tough season in 2025/26 as they finished in 16th. While they were seven clear of Cremonese in 18th, they were hardly convincing, with only 10 of their 38 matches ending in victory. Across pre-season they had a real mixed bag. A 2-1 win over Trento in their first match was followed by a 2-2 L.R. Vicenza before they beat Leicester 1-0. They were then humiliated in a crushing 10-1 loss at the hands of Bournemouth, with this then followed by a 1-0 loss to Deportivo La Coruna. While they did beat Ascoli 4-1 in the cup, their 10-1 loss to the Cherries will still be ringing in their ears.

Having lost twice to Napoli last season, I predict the home side will lose once again. It is worth noting that Genoa have not lost to Napoli by more than a goal in any of their last six matches, with three games ending in a defeat by a single goal and the other three ending as draws.

Napoli finished with the silver-medal last season as they ended the campaign 11 short of champions Inter Milan. Interestingly, the 58 goals they scored saw them striking at well below two goals per game as their attack struggled. Despite this, their pre-season has been good, with Napoli winning three of their five outings, drawing once and losing once. While travelling to take on a side on the opening day is rarely easy, Napoli will expect to win this one. However, their recent record shows they have struggled to comfortably beat their opponents, meaning I am backing Napoli to win by a single goal in a tight win.

Verdict

Serie A Best Bets

I am backing Inter Milan to start the defence of their title with an entertaining win over Monza as Napoli beat Genoa by a single goal.

Home Win & Over 2.5

Inter Milan vs Monza Match Winner & Total Goals

@-129.87 - 1 Unit

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Napoli By 1 Goal

Genoa vs Napoli Winning Margin

@260.00 - 1 Unit