Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Preview & Tips - Sabalenka to battle past Pegula in US Open semi-final

Jessica Pegula had to be at her best to bounce back from losing the first set against Emma Navarro to notch a thrilling win in the quarter-finals of the US Open. 

The pair have met a total of 13 times, with Sabalenka winning nine matches and Pegula winning four times.

Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two US Open trophies and looks on course to at least contest the final for a third consecutive crown in 2026. 

A string of 2-0 wins in the opening four rounds saw Sabalenka rarely tested, but she was given a scare in the last round by Linda Noskova. While the reigning champion did come out on top, she was never just handed a set as she triumphed 7-6 3-6 7-6. Sometimes, players struggle to go from winning easily to being seriously tested. For Sabalenka, the quarter-final was a welcome test, especially as she passed it. 

Despite winning nine of the 13 meetings between the pair, Sabalenka will know she has a real job on her hands. On hard courts, Sabalenka leads 5-3, with this head to head much closer. While I back Sabalenka to have to dig deep to win the semi-final, I do not see her missing out on the chance to walk out at the US Open final once again. 

Jessica Pegula has been outstanding at the 2026 US Open with the 32-year-old rolling back the years in a hugely impressive campaign. 

Three straight-set wins have come alongside a pair of 2-1 victories, with the latter coming in the third round and quarter-finals. Her win over Emma Navarro showcased Pegula's impressive ability to reset after losing the first set before keeping her cool and winning the next two. While she was broken twice across the next two sets, she managed to break Navarro four times to come out on top. 

The major issue for Pegula in this one is her record against Sabalenka. While she has won three of their eight on hard courts, she has been poor across the overall record, winning four of their 13. While I back Pegula to see a third match in four outings go to three sets, I do not predict that she will come out on top.