Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview & Tips - Alcaraz backed for victory over Arnaldi at the Tokyo Open

By Ben Darvill

3 hours ago

Ben Darvill 3 hours ago

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Alcaraz has won his two previous matches against Arnaldi
Arnaldi has lost seven of his 10 on hard courts in 2026 (W3)
Preview, stats & head to head

Carlos Alcaraz (Getty Images)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview & Tips
Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form
Matteo Arnaldi Form

Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview & Tips

Carlos Alcaraz was able to eventually eliminate Alex Michelsen in the first round in Tokyo as he secured a fighting 2-1 win.

Matteo Arnaldi bounced back from losing the first set to Rei Sakamoto as he surged to a 2-6 6-4 6-4 win.

Alcaraz has won 147 times on hard courts across his career (L32)

Head To Head

The pair have met twice before, with Alcaraz winning in 2023 and 2024.

Carlos Alcaraz Form

Carlos Alcaraz was given more of a workout in the first round by Alex Michelsen than many had expected as he battled to a 2-1 win.

The pair traded a pair of breaks in the first set before Alcaraz fell apart in the second set. Battling back from losing his serve and going 2-0 down, Alcaraz then won four games in a row before then losing four consecutive games. While he did rally to win six of the seven games in the third set, his performance in the second set was shaky at best.

While winning was all that mattered, Alcaraz will know that a better player will likely take advantage of Alcaraz suddenly losing the ability to hold serve and win games. His clash with Arnaldi is unlikely to see Alcaraz seriously troubled, but he will want to put in a more complete performance as he looks to turn one win into two.

Matteo Arnaldi Form

Matteo Arnaldi showed impressive resolve in the first round of the Tokyo Open as he managed to battle back from losing the first set.

While he was not at his best in the first set after being broken twice, he was very consistent in the second and third sets, with both players holding their serve until Arnaldi went 5-4 up in both sets before he broke his opponent to win 6-4.

While Arnaldi will hope to secure a stunning win over an opponent that is still getting back to his best, I cannot see him upsetting the odds in the second round. Arnaldi has won just three of his 10 on hard courts this season, while he has only won 19 of his 35 in 2026. With Alcaraz to come, I predict another tough match for Arnaldi.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi

I am backing Alcaraz to secure a win in straight sets as he eliminates Arnaldi in the second round.

Alcaraz 2-0

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