Tennis

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview & Tips - Sabalenka backed for yet another US Open triumph

By Ben Darvill

11 Sep 2026

Ben Darvill 11 Sep 2026

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Sabalenka has won seven of the 12 hard court meetings between the pair (L5)
Sabalenka has only lost three times on hard courts this season (W33)
Preview, stats & head to head

Aryna Sabalenka (Getty Images)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview & Tips
Head To Head
Aryna Sabalenka Form
Elena Rybakina Form

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview & Tips

Aryna Sabalenka was able to secure a comfortable win over Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals of the US Open as she made a big statement heading into the showpiece match.

Elena Rybakina came back from a set down to notch a stunning win over Coco Gauff as the former set up a blockbuster match against Sabalenka.

Sabalenka has won 46 matches in 2026 (L8)

Head To Head

The pair have met a total of 17 times, with Sabalenka winning 10 meetings and Rybakina securing seven wins.

Aryna Sabalenka Form

Aryna Sabalenka has been outstanding across her US Open campaign, securing five straight sets wins across her opening six matches.

A 7-6 3-6 7-6 win over Linda Noskova in the quarter-final was the only time Sabalenka has been truly tested, with even Jessica Pegula struggling to match her opponent.

Against Pegula, Sabalenka had to bide her time in both sets. She broke Pegula to go 7-5 up in the first, while she went 3-1 up in the second. While Sabalenka has not really been put under consistent pressure at the tournament this year, she will likely face a thorough examination from Rybakina.

The pair have played a total of 17 times with Sabalenka leading 10-7. Two of the last three meetings between the pair have ended in the match going to a deciding set, and I back this to be the case again. While Rybakina has the tools to seriously challenge Sabalenka, I do not back her to end a two-match losing run against her opponent.

Elena Rybakina Form

Elena Rybakina rallied brilliantly in the semi-final against Coco Gauff as she roared back from losing the first set 3-6 to triumph 6-4 6-4 in the second and third sets.

Rybakina and Gauff being incredibly well-matched was shown in the deciding set as the former broke to make it 5-3 before Gauff immediately broke back to make it 5-4. Rybakina then won the clash by breaking Gauff again, with neither able to hold their serve as the deciding set wound down.

Rybakina has made a habit out of going to three sets of late, with her last two going the distance. If she were to beat Sabalenka, it would likely see the pair playing three sets. While I do back Rybakina to get a set, I do not back her to stun her opponent as she is beaten in the deciding set.

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina

I am backing Sabalenka to secure the US Open crown on the back of a battling 2-1 win over Rybakina.

Sabalenka 2-1

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